Analysts: Afghans Will Need US Troops Beyond 2014

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Jim Michaels, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON ? President Hamid Karzai?s visit to Washington this week will center on talks to help shape the U.S. commitment to his country after the bulk of American combat forces leave in two years, according to analysts.

Afghans worry about U.S. abandonment, fearing a repeat of history when the United States supported the mujahedin in their fight against the Soviets, then walked away after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989.

Repeating that history is ?a perpetual worry of the Afghans,? said David Barno, a retired Army three-star general at the Center for a New American Security.

The Soviet-backed Afghan government collapsed within a few years, and Afghanistan plunged into a bloody civil war in the 1990s that led to the Taliban?s takeover in 1996.

Karzai has expressed a desire for additional U.S. help with finances and security beyond the date when most international combat troops are scheduled to depart, at the end of 2014. But the Obama administration is likely to respond to Karzai?s wish list with a roster of its own concerns.

Karzai will need to convince Washington of his commitment to good government and the rule of law, said Mark Jacobson, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund and former deputy NATO civilian representative in Afghanistan.

The talks will not center only on ?a list of demands and wishes,? said Said Jawad, a former Afghanistan ambassador to the United States.

White House:?Zero troops in Afghanistan possible

Washington officials may also press Karzai on his commitment to hold presidential elections in 2014. Karzai said he will abide by the nation?s constitution and not run again. His 2009 election was plagued by allegations of fraud and irregularities.

Karzai, who arrived Tuesday and will meet with Obama on Friday, wants a long-term U.S. presence, Jawad said. The Obama administration has said the meetings this week are not designed to reach a final agreement on post-2014 troop levels but to open discussions about it.

Afghanistan?s most pressing need appears to be support for its fledgling armed forces, say military analysts.

Afghan security forces, which include soldiers and police, are on track to number more than 350,000 in 2013. Many units are capable, but they lack air support, intelligence capabilities and technology to counter roadside bombs.

?I don?t see how they get by without substantial American help in those transition years (after 2014),? said Michael O?Hanlon, an analyst at Brookings Institution.

There are about 66,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, down from a peak of nearly 100,000.

The White House appears to be favoring leaving a residual force of fewer than 10,000 U.S. troops, according to the Associated Press, citing unnamed officials. Though the White House said it would not rule out the possibility of leaving no residual force behind, O?Hanlon said that is likely a negotiating tactic to pressure the Afghans to reach an agreement to provide legal protections for troops after 2014.

The Pentagon has said a residual force should be capable of conducting counterterrorism missions and providing support and training to Afghan?s security forces.

Article source: http://www.wltx.com/news/national/article/215915/142/Analysts-Afghans-Will-Need-US-Troops-Beyond-2014

Source: http://militarynews.us/analysts-afghans-will-need-us-troops-beyond-2014/

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